By 1919 staff
Police Scotland is facing a budget crisis that risks hitting the front line after the force was left with a massive financial black hole.
The multi-million pound shortfall means “something has to give”, rank-and-file leaders have warned, which could result in a reduction in officer numbers or the visibility of cops on the beat.
While Scottish ministers have allocated an extra £90.4 million in day-to-day spending for Police Scotland in 2026/27, this is nearly £15 million less than what the force said it needs to simply “stand still” – and almost £50 million below what the Chief Constable asked the government for.
Jo Farrell made it clear to MSPs last year that “any allocation below” the baseline requirement “would mean that our workforce would shrink further”.
Justice Secretary Angela Constance said the Scottish Government has invested record funding in policing.
But as of December 31 there were 16,416 full-time equivalent officers in Scotland, which was down 91 over the year.
And 1919 analysis of modelling presented to parliament suggests the smaller uplift could require the force to find around 550 ‘workforce modernisation savings’ in the coming year.
Savings could potentially be achieved through a slowdown of recruitment, with hundreds of officers eligible for retirement by summer.
Farrell actually wanted an uplift of £138.6 million, which would have given her enough to fund 850 extra officers and 348 staff.
But she set a £104.9 million baseline because Police Scotland needs to cover the higher cost of employer national insurance contributions and the agreed pay deal for officers.
At a glance
- 2026/27 budget uplift: £90.4 million
- ‘Stand still’ requirement: £104.9 million
- Funding gap: £14.5 million
- Chief constable’s request: £138.6 million
- Total shortfall: £48.2 million
David Kennedy, the Scottish Police Federation’s general secretary, said: “The funding gap now facing Police Scotland means existing plans are no longer sustainable and will have to be revisited.
“When budgets don’t match expectations, something has to give, whether that’s officer numbers, visibility, or the ability to respond effectively to demand.
“This shortfall doesn’t exist in isolation: it has direct and unavoidable consequences for frontline policing and community safety.”
The Scottish Government’s draft spending plans for 2026/27 were unveiled by Finance Secretary Shona Robison last month.
The fiscal resource budget for policing has been set at £1.566 billion, up from £1.476 billion that was allocated in the 2025/26 budget – a £90.4 million increase, or around six per cent.
That is above inflation, but it can be considered a real-terms cut when measured against unavoidable cost pressures.
On top of this, the capital allocation for buildings and equipment has increased from £75 million to £86.3 million, and there are further budget lines for police pensions and central government costs, which include the Police Investigation and Review Commissioner (PIRC).
The budget can technically still be adjusted by the government ahead of a final vote in Holyrood this month, but Scottish Labour has already said it will not let the overall package fall.
“When budgets don’t match expectations, something has to give, whether that’s officer numbers, visibility, or the ability to respond effectively to demand”
David Kennedy, SPF general secretary
Responding to the announcement in January, Farrell said: “I recognise a £90 million cash-terms uplift to revenue funding and an improved capital allocation for policing against a challenging public finance picture.”
But in an evidence session last November she told MSPs: “A minimum of £104.9 million uplift in cash terms would enable us to stand still after accounting for pay awards, increased national insurance contributions, non-pay inflation and other unavoidable costs.
“Any allocation below that would mean that our workforce would shrink further.
“Existing pressure on our performance and our people, such as the strain on the public’s confidence in our ability to prevent and investigate crime and the high level of work debt that is owed to officers and staff, would be exacerbated.
“I do not want to maintain a status quo in which we are already seeing those warnings.”
Scottish Liberal Democrat justice spokesperson Liam McArthur told 1919: “Police officer numbers have already been in decline, which raises big questions for the SNP government.
“Fewer officers puts communities at greater risk, and leaves those who remain without the support they need. It is no wonder policing bodies have repeatedly warned of a public safety crisis.
“Officers, staff and communities all deserve better. The needs of the service are considerable and we will need to hear from the Justice Secretary how she intends to meet them.”
Police Scotland modelling previously shared with MSPs suggested that an uplift of £138.6 million extra would fund 850 officers and 348 staff, while £104.9 million would lead to around 300 “workforce modernisation savings”.
A £25.2 million ‘flat cash’ uplift, meanwhile, would push those savings to a level of 1,662, with a “significant slowdown of police officer and staff recruitment”.
1919 analysis indicates the £90.4 million in the budget could therefore require up to 550 workforce modernisation savings.
Scottish Conservative justice spokesperson Liam Kerr said: “The SNP’s cuts to policing are nothing short of reckless.
“Officer numbers are already at such historic lows that Police Scotland can’t investigate some crimes. So the prospect of hundreds more officers being cut from the ranks due to a funding shortfall is truly terrifying.
“It would leave our communities even more vulnerable to criminals. If the SNP government is serious about tackling crime and protecting the public, it must give our police the resources they need to keep Scotland’s streets safe.”
But Constance said: “We are investing a record £1.7 billion for policing in 2026/27 – following record investment last year which enabled Police Scotland to take on more recruits in the last financial year than at any time since 2013.
“There have been further intakes across 2025/26, with another planned for March.
“Scotland continues to be a safe place to live, with more police officers per capita than England and Wales and recorded crime having fallen by half since 1991.”
