By Adam Morris
Rape cases are increasing in prevalence even more than statistics suggest, with new analysis indicating reports of historic sex crimes are tailing off.
The rising number of reported rapes investigated by police over the past decade has in part been driven by more people coming forward to report non-recent incidents.
However, new data suggests that trend is slowing, meaning recent rape cases are accounting for a larger proportion of incidents recorded by police.
This has prompted Police Scotland to report “an increase in prevalence” of rape across the country, sparking warnings that Scotland’s rising rape count is more of a live threat than previously thought.
Victim Support Scotland said the publishing of such figures is important in understanding the bigger picture.
“However, we are concerned that these figures suggest a potential increase in the prevalence of rape cases, particularly recent rape,” said Kate Wallace, the charity’s chief executive.
“We know that sexual offences are often under-reported, which adds to this worry.
“It’s vital that victims have the confidence to come forward and report these crimes. No matter when they took place, it takes a huge amount of effort and can have an emotional toll on the person who reports it.”
At their peak, non-recent rape crimes accounted for almost half of rape reports received by Police Scotland.
That came on the back of several high-profile cases and proactive work by public authorities urging victims to come forward, however old the case.
Operation Yewtree, which investigated the crimes of disgraced entertainer Jimmy Savile and others, as well as the global MeToo movement, also encouraged victims to come forward, sometimes several decades after the crime.
But latest statistics suggest emphasis has shifted back to more recent cases.
In the first nine months of 2024/25, 61.8 per cent of rape cases concerned recent incidents, compared to 38.4 per cent non-recent.
In 2020/21, historic cases accounted for more than 43 per cent of investigations.
A report to the Scottish Police Authority’s Policing Performance Committee stated: “While both recent and non-recent rape cases have increased, it is recent rapes that is increasing at a faster rate which potentially indicates an increase in prevalence.”
“We are concerned that these figures suggest a potential increase in the prevalence of rape cases, particularly recent rape”
The long-term statistical picture for rape crimes in Scotland paints a bleak picture, with cases rising by a third over the last decade.
In 2023/24, the last full year for which figures are available, there were the equivalent of six rape crimes recorded by police every single day.
Attempted rape cases, while significantly smaller in number, also rose by a fifth.
Female victims raped by men remain the overwhelming category of crime recorded.
More than half have a domestic element, meaning the victim was attacked by a current or former partner.
Detective Chief Superintendent Sarah Taylor said: “We will always take a victim-centred approach to all reports of sexual offences.
“Every report is thoroughly investigated, with sensitivity and professionalism, by specially trained liaison officers who will support victims and signpost to appropriate support.
“Tackling sexual crime is a priority and we work closely with partners to make sure people are aware of how to report crimes of this nature.”
Police Scotland encourages anyone who has been a victim of sexual crime to call 101 or 999 in an emergency. If someone feels unable to contact police directly they can contact Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111 or reach out to organisations like Victim Support Scotland on 0800 160 1985 or visit the website www.victimsupport.scot.