Which areas have suffered most and least?

Detailed statistics are routinely published by Police Scotland in relation to officer numbers.

Some of Scotland’s most rural and remote divisions have lost the most officers proportionally. The Highlands and Islands’ N division endured a 6.5 per cent cut over the last five years, the equivalent of 43 officers.

Neighbouring A division, which covers the north-east of Scotland, lost 50 cops, a decrease of 4.5 per cent. And in Dumfries and Galloway, at the cross-border forefront of rife UK rural crime, officers dropped by 5.1 per cent.

The two divisions to increase headcount were Glasgow (G) and Edinburgh (E). The five-year rises were modest, 0.4 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively, with both still significantly below the levels seen a decade ago.

In addition, the west and east regions – from where both divisions can pull ad-hoc resources – received savage cuts of 17.2 per cent and 20.1 per cent. That means the overall picture has likely declined from a headcount perspective.

Is rural Scotland worse off?

While the headline figures suggest rural Scotland bore the brunt, the picture is more complex. Although the west and east regions, which encompass the populous central belt, have been gutted since 2021, the north region actually rose in number, from 583 officers to 618.

And defining precisely which divisions are rural can be challenging, as many which cover vast countryside landscapes – such as Ayrshire and Tayside – also police urban areas with higher-than-average crime levels.

What about the regions and ‘national resources’?

While all 13 divisions have their allocation of officers, there are larger pools to dip into depending on local events and trends.

These are divided into three regions – east, north and west – which between them hold resources of almost 2,700 officers. It means divisions can reach out to the regional level in times of shortfalls or additional challenges.

There is also a band which is called ‘national resource’. Numbers fluctuate, and have reduced significantly since 2021, from 1,970 to 1,762.

Like regional officers, these personnel can step in to help at any place, at any time, particularly in cases requiring special skills or attention. The Scottish Government argues that this is a key benefit of having a single force.

Is this part of a long-term trend?

The incoming SNP government famously pledged to recruit 1,000 extra officers when it came to office in 2007. That promise was honoured, and numbers eventually reached a high of 17,496 in 2013.

However, they slumped to 16,207 in the summer of 2024, and have only made a stuttering recovery since. The real decline started at the beginning of 2021 and – save for a few positive blips – the headcount has been foundering ever since.

What do the rank-and-file think?

The Scottish Police Federation (SPF) says declining officer numbers are its primary concern, with a number of serious problems stemming from it.

It says declining officer numbers lead to more crime and less protection for communities, and also has a devastating impact on those officers left behind, causing higher levels of sickness and stress.

“Police officers are under immense strain fighting crime and also picking up the functions which should be provided by other services,” said David Threadgold, chair of the SPF.

“You also have to consider that many of the officers within these numbers aren’t able to be on the front line because of illness, injury or restricted duty.

“When demand increases and resources decline, there’s only going to be one outcome. Every cop is trying their best under these circumstances.”

Is it just about money?

Tensions around funding came to head before the latest budget settlement from the Scottish Government for the current financial year. Jo Farrell, the Chief Constable, asked ministers for an uplift of £138.6 million to pay for more officers and staff.

She argued that at least £104.9 million more would be needed to simply “stand still”. In the end, the budget delivered only an additional £90.4 million.

However, other factors are also at play. A pensions timebomb has resulted in an unexpected exodus of senior officers, and concerns have also been raised about the calibre of applicants seeking to enter the force.

Aware of just how difficult and unattractive the job can appear, both Police Scotland and the SPF have launched high-profile recruitment and awareness campaigns in recent years.

Does Police Scotland have a view?

Since the disappointing budget settlement the top brass have gone quiet, perhaps keeping their powder dry for next year’s negotiations.

Deputy Chief Constable Alan Speirs said the headcount currently stands at 16,492, supplemented by the recent recruitment of 169 probationers.

“These are officers who make sacrifices every day to keep people safe and their dedication and professionalism is the reason we manage to deliver effective policing for all our communities,” he said of the nation’s cops.

“Retention levels within Police Scotland remain very high compared with other organisations, and we continually monitor those leaving the organisation to ensure our future hiring needs ensure sustainability.”

What’s the Scottish Government’s take?

Ministers maintain Scotland is a safe place to live and work, and that police officers do a sterling job of keeping communities safe.

They also point to budget uplifts and the fact that Scotland has more police officers per head of the population than the rest of the UK.

That particular claim is challenged by the SPF and opposition politicians, who say Scotland’s vastly different geographical profile makes the comparison moot.

The Scottish Government also says that resourcing of policing goes beyond officer numbers, and includes the funding of roughly 6,000 additional staff.

“We are investing record funding of more than £1.7 billion in policing this year, and the Chief Constable has confirmed that this will enable Police Scotland to maintain officer numbers at 16,500 while continuing to prioritise frontline services”, a spokesperson told 1919.

“Scotland continues to have more police officers per capita than England and Wales, and recorded crime has fallen by almost half since 1991.

“A single police service ensures that local divisions can access resources and specialist expertise as required at regional and national level.”